EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON MOVEMENT OF GOLD PRICES IN INTERNATIONAL MARKET: AN EVIDENCE BASED STUDY

DOI: https://doie.org/10.65985/APER.2026334676

Authors:

Dr. N. Prakash, Dr. Rajani Bora, P V RAJYA LAKSHMI, Ms. Shalini Singh, Sanjoy Mukherjee, Pallavi Maheshwari

Keywords:

Gold Price Movement, USD Index, Inflation Rate, Crude Oil Prices, Macroeconomic Determinants, International Commodity Market

Abstract:

This study empirically examines the impact of selected macroeconomic variables i.e. USD Index, Inflation, and Crude Oil Prices on gold price movements in the international market during the period 2020–21 to 2024–25. Gold is widely regarded as a safe-haven asset and an effective hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. Using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple regression techniques, the study evaluates the magnitude and significance of relationships between gold prices and key economic indicators. The descriptive results reveal substantial volatility in gold prices during the study period. Correlation analysis indicates a strong negative relationship between the USD Index and gold prices, and a moderate positive relationship between inflation and gold prices. Regression findings show that the model explains 97.5% of the variation in gold prices (R² = 0.975), confirming strong explanatory power. Inflation emerges as the most significant determinant of gold prices, while the USD Index demonstrates marginal significance. Crude oil prices do not exhibit a statistically significant independent effect. The findings reinforce gold’s role as an inflation hedge and highlight the importance of macroeconomic stability in determining gold price movements.

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